好彩!全部基金跳过了补贴退坡的坑!

1

今日市场在大家的担心之中,虽然做了一个跳水的动作,但最终还是红盘了,算是稳定了多头的军心。毕竟如果连3000点都站不上去,这连续万亿元的成交量只会令人感觉市场抛压奇重而转向观望。
受新能源补贴新方案出台,补贴幅度严重下滑的影响,今日新能源车,尤其是新能源客车,盘中几乎承包了跌幅榜。此前看过一篇介绍国产新能源车的深度文章,可能有偏颇,但是结论大差不差,总的评价就是,由于补贴太高,吸引了不少厂家胡乱造车,根本不考虑销售问题、也不考虑客户体验问题,随便把车改装一下,就打着新能源车的旗号去拿补贴了。
所以,今日美国前商务部长在博鳌讲话,说5G就是企业间的竞争,上升到国家层面很不正常。深以为然。因为这是人性,无关制度。人性就是低成本、高利润。如果企业的技术进步绑架国家的尊严进去,比如新能源车,我们不想落后,然后希望国家对产业进行支持的话,那么很显然,国家不可能对每一辆车进行严格的审查,再决定是否补贴,这根本是不可能完成的任务。因此,只要动员国家的资源进行补贴的政策出台,就会有一批投机分子开动脑筋来钻空子,骗钱过日子!道理很简单,要把产品做到成千上万个消费者都认同实在太不容易了,但是跟国家某个部委的某个官员打交道,相比之下实在太简单了,至少时间与金钱方面的成本低太多了。
所以,当补贴的潮水退去,很多企业技术层面几乎没有任何拿得出来的状态就开始裸露了。而消费者对这些依靠补贴生产出来的车辆评价很低,最终导致销售数据的大滑坡。

2

今日几只汽车股:中通客车、安凯客车、亚星客车、金龙客车,跌幅最大的超过9%,最小的金龙客车也跌了7.3%。从业绩来看,这样下跌后,其滚动市盈率还都在54倍以上,且这些公司大多发布了全年业绩大跌的预警公告!
幸运的是,查看了一下这几家公司的股东名单,前十大股东里没有一家主动型的基金,就连被动型的基金,四十个大股东里面也只有一家。可见现在基金公司确实是越来越注重价值投资了,而不是不管价值,只看概念与光环。

3

今日最令我惊叹的基金新闻是关于余额宝的。天弘基金的四季报显示,目前其余额宝的客户已经多达5.88亿人啦!想起五年前,我在财经郎眼上舌战纽文新,他说余额宝给客户相对较高的利息,抬高了企业的资金成本,是危害了国家利益。我完全不能同意他的这个说法,我说没有抽象的国家利益,真正的国家利益是这个国家的人民的利益,如果余额宝让广大人民受益,就是让这个国家受益!企业成本高可以倒逼他们想更多的办法改进生产。当时这段话在现场收获了雷鸣般的掌声(详情可见视频)!
当时他还不信,认为余额宝没有几个客户,结果主持人王牧笛马上在现场向观众发出调查:有余额宝的请举手。我四外望去,几乎全场都在举手。搞得纽文新相当不开心,感觉自己落入了王牧笛布下的“包围圈“。但其实这是冤枉王牧笛了,通常现场的观众都是团队中的其他工作人员负责邀请的,主要就是各大学与财经有关专业的学生。
五年过去了,余额宝的人数竟然接近6个亿了!基本上可以说每个家庭都有一个人拥有余额宝了,可见余额宝生命力之强大。
而为了防止余额宝规模过大带来的风险,很长一段时间里,余额宝出台了不少限购措施。后来为了满足市场的需要,支付宝开放了与其它基金公司合作的货币基金的销售。结果显示,这一使用便捷、收益不错的理财方式受到了市场的巨大欢迎。接入这一平台的其它“余额宝“的规模均实现了暴涨。以去年为例,新接入的20多只货币基金的平均规模涨了80多倍。涨幅最快的是华安日日鑫货币A,2018年 5月接入余额宝之后,基金规模暴涨了418倍!景顺长城的景益货币规模暴涨了216倍!
所以,靠政策虽然短期内可以灿烂,却犹如昙花一现,而靠市场,靠解决用户的真实需求,为他们提供货真价实的服务,才能踏踏实实地创造辉煌的业绩!

平点金基已关联讯飞快读基金小程序~
双语阅读~

In today’s market, everyone’s worries, although doing a diving action, but in the end is still a red plate, it is a stable long-term military. After all, if you can’t even stand up to 3,000 points, this continuous trillions of funds will only make people feel that the market is selling heavily and turn to wait and see.
Affected by the new subsidies for new energy subsidies and the severe decline in subsidies, today’s new energy vehicles, especially new energy buses, almost contracted the decline. I have seen an in-depth article on domestic new energy vehicles, which may be biased, but the conclusion is not bad. The overall evaluation is that because the subsidies are too high, many manufacturers are attracted to make cars, and they do not consider sales issues. Regardless of the customer experience, just modify the car and use the banner of the new energy vehicle to get subsidies. Therefore, today the former US Secretary of Commerce spoke in Hainan, saying that 5G is a competition among enterprises, and it is not normal to rise to the national level. Deeply thought.
Because this is human nature, it has nothing to do with the system. Humanity is low cost and high profit. If the technological advancement of the enterprise abducts the dignity of the country, such as new energy vehicles, we do not want to lag behind, and then hope that the state supports the industry, then it is clear that the state cannot conduct a strict review of each car before deciding whether to subsidize This is simply impossible to accomplish.
Therefore, as long as the mobilization of the state’s resources for the introduction of subsidies, there will be a group of speculators to use their brains to dig into the air and lie to the money! The reason is very simple. It is too difficult to make the products reach thousands of consumers. But dealing with an official of a certain ministry in the country is too simple, at least in terms of time and money. The cost is too low,Therefore, when the tide of subsidies has receded, many enterprises have barely got any state of technology and they have begun to be exposed. Consumers’ evaluation of these vehicles that rely on subsidies is very low, which ultimately leads to a big decline in sales data.
Today, several auto stocks: Zhongtong Bus, Ankai Bus, Yaxing Bus, Jinlong Bus, the biggest drop of more than 9%, the smallest Jinlong bus also fell 7.3%. In terms of performance, after this decline, its rolling P/E ratio is still more than 54 times, and most of these companies have issued an early warning announcement that the annual performance has plummeted!
Fortunately, look at the list of shareholders of these companies. There is no active fund in the top ten shareholders. Even passive funds, only one of the 40 major shareholders. It can be seen that fund companies are now paying more and more attention to value investment, rather than regardless of value, only look at concepts and aura.
The fund news that I am most amazed today is about Yu’ebao. Tianhong Fund’s Four Seasons report shows that its current balance has reached 588 million customers! I remembered that four years ago, I was fighting against New York in the eyes of Cai Lang. He said that Yue Bao gave relatively high interest to customers and raised the cost of capital for enterprises, which is harmful to the national interest. I can’t agree with this statement at all. I said that there is no abstract national interest. The real national interest is the interests of the people of this country. If the balance of the treasure benefits the people, it will benefit the people and benefit the country! High corporate costs can force them to think of more ways to improve production. At the time, this passage was harvested with thunderous applause! See the video link for details. At that time, he still did not believe that there were not a few customers in Yu’ebao.
As a result, the host Wang Mudi immediately sent an investigation to the audience on the spot: Please raise your hand with the balance treasure. I looked around and almost raised the audience. It’s quite unhappy to get Newwen’s new, and feel that he has fallen into the “encirclement circle” under Wang Mudi’s cloth. But in fact, this is the king of the king, and the audience on the spot is usually the person in charge of the team, mainly the students of the university and finance.
Four years have passed, and the number of Yu’ebao is close to 600 million! Basically, it can be said that each family has a person who owns the balance treasure, and it can be seen that the balance treasure has a strong vitality.
In order to prevent the risk caused by the excessive size of Yu’ebao, for a long time, Yu’e has introduced a number of restrictions on purchases. Later, in order to meet the needs of the market, Alipay opened the sale of money funds in cooperation with other fund companies. The results show that this convenient and profitable financial management method has been greatly welcomed by the market. The scale of other “Yuebao” accessing this platform has skyrocketed. Last year, for example, the average size of more than 20 newly-funded money funds has increased by more than 80 times. The fastest increase was Huaan Ri Rixin Currency A. After accessing Yu’ebao in May 2018, the fund scale soared 418 times! The Jingyi currency of the Invesco Great Wall has skyrocketed by 216 times!
Therefore, although the policy can be splendid in the short term, it is like a short-lived, but relying on the market, to solve the real needs of users, to provide them with genuine services, in order to create a brilliant performance!

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